Pandeconomics-1 29-4-2020
While the whole World in general and the country like India particular are nearing to only certain ultimate soln against this contagion ie herd immunity, don’t you think the whole economic cost being incurred now for the national pause will be fast converted into sunk cost.
The fact remains that the northern hemisphere can afford it but not the southern one.
What we had comparative advantage like younger population and warmer climate could have used to grow the antibodies inside stratified layers of demography ( somewhere caution somewhere trust) rather than moving towards a wholesale copybook solution(read it pretext to solution) borrowed from west of lockdown which apparently has no exit route.
Pandeconomics-2 01-05-2020
Did the corona give lee way to the autocrats ?
The corona contagion and the unique conundrum around it gave a very fresh lease to the power grabber autocrat to suppress the fact(even the infection statistics or so also strategy of health care against it) , to reinforce their rule being bestowed the supreme power to decide in such time of national crisis by the law of land where the opposition gets literally pigeonholed or the media which are just forced into embedded journalism publishing with Govt directives rather than free press. Lastly they just find their easy surrogate of political overtone under the apparent statesmanship. This type of eventuality just gives the unique chance to the otherwise paranoid, perplexed today’s citizen who surely be tomorrow’s electorate to forget and forgive the other discredit or decadence of their Chief’s past rule. And this opportunity just have so much leverage getting further extended as the confusion of any forthcoming solution simply lingers. Under the garb of quarantine , lock down , national pause etc the democracy , the rights and privilege all these just took the back seat while personal agenda, political undertone (even political vendetta to imprison for breaking the rule) etc prevails as the whole world keep engaged with the battle with invisible and uncertain.
Pandeconomics-3 09-05-2020
The issue of the day is how market will behave after the lockdown whether it gets revoked straight way or staggered way. In one side the sudden lockdown for one and half month just put the producer specially apart from essential goods with huge inventory trap which have been too overbearing to carry on any more so big discount , stock clearance and so also supply surplus is in the waiting. In other way huge slump of economy , overshooting ,unemployment, bottomed out liquidity all will dent a big hole in purchasing power so complete downward spiral is just breathing on every country’s (so the corporate’s)shoulder. A third angle is that due to national pause there is complete impasse in manufacturing , service and all allied jobs so there is chance that huge supply problem will be created as any company in such start-stop rhythm(only certain module existing these days of uncertainty) of economy needs so many months to come to its full productivity. The whole problem of production and also productivity will be hampered due to restricted , regulated supply of labour(some went home , some allowed with fix numbers).And the list of variables(some tested some untested) keep increasing .
So being trapped under such divergent pull how market will behave post lockdown period?
Pandeconomics-4 10-05-2020
In climate issue we see lock down is bliss in disguise . The nature is recharging itself after a long time.
The bigger picture what we are missing that till the other day every congregation , covenant , conference on climate kept on coming to an unanimity in thinking , there is no such market mechanism(promote some and proscribe other) like carbon credit or state mechanism (taxing you material which contains ) too proven to itself to be monitored, as in aggregate the waste gas never falls short. Recently all the upcoming nations in the name of developing and underdeveloped just got too reluctant to trade of their growth(rate and real both) with the climate by measures like alternate but costlier energy than coal burnt power etc with its excuse that developed reached its state today by doing just what developing are doing now growth buoyed on giga gallon of waste gas. So the argument kept continuing from Doha to Uruguay to Copenhagen to Paris to Morocco and minds gets changed , measures not cared dragging the earth in the spiral of climate got sucked , celsius got soared , disease got spread. And somebody’s action is always offset by other’s inaction.
But the corona virus just leave no space of discontent. It made everyday suffers irrespective of developed , developing , pretentious and pure heart , rich and poor or south and north. All came to standstill , all got its own pause . All are too coiled in uncertainty to burn the fossil fuel beyond the bare minimum , all stopped ravaging the earth at the name of development .
And we are in regression mode in civilisation and so also climate.The whole world is getting cooled and nourished back to its past, refreshed. It is the first time in human civilisation just a microbe , an invisible organism , a worm not any war brought the burning of fossil fuel to its lowest level.
Pandeconomics- 5 16-05-2020
The time was never been more right . Blame it on Covid Crisis, Indian economics toeing the global economical cataclysm nosedived so much eroding the wealth created for last four decades (assume the USA rise till 80s then Singapore , South Korea , China then others ).
For India in these days (PreCorona and Post reform)along with its economy , democracy got further matured and so also stiff resistance to big ticket reform , like changing labour law, revoking coal nationalisation , merging banking and opening up private participation in all those sectors which were either losing or profiting at suboptimal level.In our parliamentary democracy where local leaders’ agendas always triumph over the national interest , every bold step forward got two steps backward , the phenomenon where even majoritarian Govt also could not help. And nobody could escape its ultra protectionist approach to market in the garb of patriotism and nationalism , even not the party which backs this Govt these days.
Corona suddenly upended the situation and presented some rarest of the rare scope to push forward all those reform overdue for so long and that also at one go. And this time without any any single resistance as sloganeering mind and agitating lips all are kept shut under the confinement of lockdown. In the crisis time only voice gets heard and which is of the supreme leader or the head of the state and nobody else.
So time is ripe to repeal nationalisation act of coal, reform labour laws to induce the agility as well as mobility and so on.
Yesterday you saw UP and other reformed the labour laws, today GoI pushed for freeing coal market (produce and sell for Pvt) allowing 500 players! You saw MSMEs are being geared up with soft loans and strong support to flourish . Not to forget , Chinese Corona Conundrum just trafficked the big multinationals shifting their base towards India And the list is just getting longer.
So fasten your sit belt and embrace for New India which may be not same as before but surely not always poorer in every count be rest assured.